Sep 04
Sod's law
Keelan and colleagues Dr David Lewis and
Philip Obayda come up with an equation that tests the likihood
that Sod's law will strike. This equation gained international
coverage with newspapers like The Metro, The Sun, The Evening
Standard, The Times, The New Yorker Wired magazine and many more
covering the piece. The equation was also a question on the Big
Fat Quiz of the Year with Jonathan Ross. There are many chatroom
devoted to he equation now and even a company in the states is
producing T-shirts with the Sod's Law equation on the front and
'S**t Happens' on the back.
Here is just one of the storys taken from
the Newspaper @The Scotsman
Now, the formula that predicts when Sod's Law will strike
next
IAN JOHNSTON
AUTHOR Jerome K Jerome bemoaned the fact that while wearing boots
a man would never bump into anything, but would stub his toe shortly
after putting on sandals, while fellow writer Maurice Rock quipped:
"Any body plunged in liquid receives a phone call".
The infuriating certainty of Sod’s Law - that if something
can go wrong, it will and most likely at the worst possible moment
- has caused consternation down the ages.
But now a team of freelance academics has come up with a formula,
which they claim will help ordinary people "cut the seemingly
unbeatable Sod’s Law gremlins down to size".
The saviour of the hapless and the accident-prone - assuming
they have access to a calculator - is: ((U+C+I) x (10-S))/20 x
A x 1/(1-sin(F/10)).
Dr Keelan Leyser, a London-based economist who also performs
as a magician, the psychologist Dr David Lewis, formerly of Sussex
University, and a consultant mathematician, Philip Obadya, also
based in London, worked out the formula after studying the experiences
of 1,000 Sod’s Law victims and also helpfully came up with
a seven-step guide on how to perform the calculation.
The formula looks at five factors relating to any event or action:
urgency (U), complexity (C), importance (I), skill (S) and frequency
(F).
A score of between one and nine is applied to each of these factors,
with a 0.7 score for aggravation (A), and then the formula can
be used to find a Sod’s Law rating of between zero and ten.
The higher the number, the more likely it is that someone will
fall foul of Sod’s Law.
For instance, wearing a new shirt when going on a first date
only increases the chances of spilling a drink on it before meeting
the person, and, despite having a drawer full of spare lightbulbs,
none of them ever matches the bulb that has just blown.
Dr Lewis said: "The lesson from this is that, to cut the
seemingly unbeatable Sod’s Law gremlins down to size, change
one of the elements in the equation.
"If you haven’t the skill to do something important,
leave it alone. If something is urgent or complex, find a simple
way to do it. If something going wrong will aggravate you, make
sure you know how to do it.
"For example, you spill a drink on yourself before a date
because making the important decision of what to wear, you forget
all you knew about getting a cup to your lips and throw tea down
yourself. So concentrate harder on drinking."
The study, which was commissioned by British Gas, might have
helped United States Air Force Captain Edward Murphy who became
known for doing experiments that always went wrong when performed
in front of a more senior officer during the Second World War.
In the US, Sod’s Law is known as Murphy’s Law.
The survey found that the top ten most likely examples of Sod’s
Law included spilling something on your clothes before a first
date at No1, followed by the boiler breaking down during a cold
snap and rush-hour traffic being worse when you are late.
The others included computer crashes just as an e-mail containing
an important document is sent, a washing machine breaking down
just before a holiday and the cooker breaking down when you are
expecting guests.
Anne Morton, of British Gas, said: "In our experts’
tests, the mercilessness of Sod’s Law emerged. Not only
do things go wrong, they do so when they are most likely to drive
their victims up the wall.
"For example, Sod’s Law shows how cruel it can be
when it comes to the shower turning cold just as you’ve
shampooed. But because men aren’t bothered as much, the
chances of it happening to them are low. Women hate it and it
happens far more to them."
Dr Chris Theobald, of Edinburgh University’s maths department,
an expert on decision theory, modelling human sensory data and
"probabilistic risk assessment", told The Scotsman:
"It’s obviously not serious. It sounds like a bit of
fun.
"Sod’s Law is probably because you remember things
that occur at a bad time more than you do things that don’t.
It’s more of a psychological thing than a mathematical one,
I would suspect."
Dr Theobald’s work deals with issues such as advising farmers
on how much seed or fertiliser to use on a field to be as cost-efficient
as possible.
He doubted he would use the Sod’s Law formula in his daily
life: "I’m not sure I would believe anyone else’s
formula."